26 January, 2008

(C) Hangover after Heavy Drinking

The panic and the fear on the BSE have within two months only, replaced the greed which had been reigning over the market during the last twelve months. With the deepening foreign influence over our market, we have witnessed a high-speed chill of the investors’ optimism. This definitely affects the financial instruments with embodied reverse claims such as the REPOs, the certificates and the mutual funds.

On one side, the fundamentals which drown the indexes are the liquidity traps on the foreign markets, the increased financial risk and more particularly for the emergin regions the worsening macro expectations. On the other side the real influence of these factors is being multiplied by the traders who rarely consult any fundamental analysis … the result – hyper volatility.

There remains the moderate optimism for positive development of the Bulgarian economy. The decline to more adequate price multiples is a sensible happy end for the fundamental value investors. When the irrationality is a market factor, though this time a negative one, all the participants with a decent analytical grounds and long-term investment horizon search for the undervalued, after today’s session the severely undervalued companies, into which to invest.

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