The IMF real GDP growth expectations in parallel with some 50-100 bp more optimistic leading banks' projections, point at one only direction – downwards. It is certainly illogical to expect, that our economy will not be affected by the global slowdown and out capital market will stay aside.
The global economy slowdown will affect with different magnitude and at different times, the different countries, industries and companies. The competitiveness, (1) the skill to attract value-adding investments, (2) the political, the fiscal and the (3) monetary stability are key factors, followed by the analysts of the global funds, when recommending international diversification. Additionally weight is given to (4) adequate education, (5) R&D investments, budget deficit and government debt as well as (6) unbalanced by FDI, current account deficit.
I am personally strongly pessimistic with regard to the factors in italic, which on one side are not widely featured in our economy, but on the other side are prerequisite for quicker and easier overcoming of the global crises by the real sector of the economy.
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